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WEDNESDAY,  AUGUST 20,  2008

UPDATE:  A CBS News/NY Times poll just released also confirms the trend we've been reporting today.  The figures are identical to the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll we discuss in the next story,  Obama's lead has been cut in half, and the race is now 45-42 Obama.  This is among registered voters.  McCain generally does better among likely voters, so the race may even be closer.

NEW POLL - GRIM FOR BARACK

Posted at 7:53 p.m. ET

A new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll just released confirms the national trend - Obama is in trouble.

Obama's lead has been cut in half since the last time the poll was taken:

Overall, Obama holds a three-point lead over McCain, 45-42 percent, which is within the survey’s margin of error. That’s down from Obama’s six-point advantage last month, 47-41 percent.

And an analysis:

“Whatever momentum that Obama took into the summer, he really appears to have lost it,” says Republican pollster Neil Newhouse, who conducted the survey with Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart. “It is not a dead heat, but it is close.”

The Democratic convention - Obama's party - is five days away.  Some gift suggestions:  Bring him some modesty.  Bring him a vice president who can be president.  Bring him a sense of respect for the people of his own country.  These gifts are inexpensive, but may be hard to obtain.

Let the combat begin.

Isn't this fun?

August 20, 2008.      Permalink          

NEW HAMPSHIRE

Posted at 6:20 p.m. ET

New Hampshire has been edging Democratic in recent years, and it may still go to Obama in this election.  However, the political trends in the state are a good example of what seems to be happening nationally to Obama.  Scott Rasmussen reports his findings, as of today:

The presidential race in New Hampshire is now a toss-up. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds that Barack Obama's once-double-digit lead over John McCain is down to a statistically insignificant one-point lead, 43% to 42%.

When “leaners” are factored in, Obama is ahead 47% to 46%.

The details:

The Democrat’s support has steadily decreased in the Granite State since he clinched the nomination in early June. Obama fell from an 11-percentage point lead in mid-June to a six-point lead in July. The latest numbers mark the closest the race has been so far this year.

The latest numbers show support growing for McCain from those in his party. He now earns the vote from 87% of GOP voters, up from 78% a month ago. Though Obama still has a 42% to 34% lead among unaffiliated voters, support for the Democrat is down from 50% last month. He also has a 46% to 38% lead among women. Among men in New Hampshire, McCain has a 46% to 40% edge.

While Obama has a solid lead among younger voters, the race is close among voters between the ages of 30 and 64. McCain has a dominant lead among voters age 65 and older.

Things are going in the right direction, but the work ahead will be hard and frustrating.  Obama is surrounded by shrewd political operatives, and he's started to fight back.  The media will help him.  Don't be shocked if there's an October surprise that helps Obama - some last-minute "revelation" about McCain that won't be disproved until after the election.  And don't be shocked on election day if there are big-city precincts in crucial states where more people vote than live in the precincts.  There are areas in the nation that honor the wisdom of the dearly departed by permitting them to vote.  Why not?  They've had so much experience.

A fight ahead.

August 20, 2008.      Permalink          

TRACKERS

Posted at 1:21 p.m. ET

Both trackers are now in.  As reported earlier at SNIPPETS, Rasmussen has Obama up by one. He was up by two yesterday.

Gallup has Obama up two.  He was up one yesterday.

So the trackers are a wash.

The headline today is a Reuters/Zogby poll showing McCain up by five.  As of now, that's an outlier.  The key point in that survey is that the same poll showed Obama up seven in July.

I think that most pros will see this as a dead even race, not where Obama wanted to be. 

August 20, 2008.      Permalink          

POLL STUNNER - JUST IN!

Posted at 8:09 a.m. ET

A new Reuters/Zogby poll released this morning shows John McCain with a five-point lead over Barack Obama. 

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - In a sharp turnaround, Republican John McCain has opened a 5-point lead on Democrat Barack Obama in the U.S. presidential race and is seen as a stronger manager of the economy, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Wednesday.

McCain leads Obama among likely U.S. voters by 46 percent to 41 percent, wiping out Obama's solid 7-point advantage in July and taking his first lead in the monthly Reuters/Zogby poll.

We'll have to wait to see if this result is duplicated, or almost duplicated, by the other pollsters.  But coming a few days before Democrats start arriving in Denver, it won't boost morale...except possibly among those delegates who want to force Hillary onto the ticket.

August 20, 2008.      Permalink          

TALK

Posted at 7:34 a.m. ET

NATO, or, as we used to call it, No Action Talk Only, did more talking yesterday.  The subject was Georgia.  The Wall Street Journal is disappointed:

"Empty words." That's how Moscow glibly dismissed NATO's criticism yesterday of Russia's continued occupation of Georgia. The Russians may be bullies, but like all bullies they know weakness when they see it.

The most NATO ministers could muster at their meeting in Brussels was a statement that they "cannot continue with business as usual" with Russia. There was no move to fast-track Georgia's bid to join NATO, nor a pledge to help the battered democracy rebuild its defenses.

And...

NATO leaders also failed to mention Ukraine, another applicant for NATO membership that has angered Moscow in recent years and could become its next target. Also missing was any indication that the alliance would begin making long-delayed plans for defending the Baltic member states and other countries on its eastern flank in case of attack.

And...

One of Moscow's goals is clearly to humiliate Georgia enough to topple President Mikheil Saakashvili, so he can be replaced with a pliable leader who will "Finlandize" the country, to borrow the old Cold War term for acquiescing to Kremlin wishes. In the bargain, it is also betting it can humiliate the West, which will give the people of Ukraine real doubts about whether joining NATO is worth the risk of angering Moscow. Judging by NATO's demoralizing response on Tuesday, the Kremlin is right.

The Georgia crisis is the most serious West/Moscow confrontation since the end of the Cold War.  It occurs at the weakest moment in the Bush administration's tenure.  The fact is that our options are limited.  There is no beating of drums for major action on the part of the West.

But the crisis has had one positive effect:  It has forced Americans to look at the presidential candidates as potential commanders-in-chief.  I hope voters will see that one is qualified to lead the nation through a crisis like this, and one is not.  If Georgia tilts our country toward Senator McCain, the Russian invasion of that oppressed democracy may turn out to be a major Kremlin blunder, placing a man in the White House who has studied Russian intentions for years, and understands them.  There can be no joy in Moscow over that prospect.

August 20, 2008.      Permalink          

THE CHOICE

Posted at 6:59 a.m. ET

I find all this fever-pitch speculation about the vice presidential choices rather amusing.  Many years ago the choice of the vice president was an afterthought - as long as the candidate was breathing, he was an okay choice.  Now a theatrical drama is put on for television and the press.  In reality, vice presidential choices rarely turn out to mean much during the election season.  People vote for the top of the ticket, not the August second-stringer.  The last time a vice-presidential choice was truly important was, of course, 1960, when Kennedy's choice of Lyndon Johnson, a choice deeply resented by northern liberals, brought him Texas, and the presidency. 

We're told that Obama will campaign with "the choice" on Saturday.  Now, either the choice has been or has not been told.  If he or she has been told, word would probably have leaked out already.  Staffs have to be prepared, travel arrangements made, talking points coordinated so the choice doesn't make a fool of himself or herself on the first day out.  Of course, if the choice is a real pro, and already has a campaign organization ready to roll, and can keep that secret...   Hmm.

Or, the candidate has not been told, and will learn along with the rest of us.  That's quite a jolt for someone who has to be ready to launch a national campaign within 24 or 48 hours.  Unless the choice is experienced at...  Hmm.

You know where I'm going.  There's only one candidate who can spring immediately into action, and knows the territory, and can take the scrutiny of the TV cameras on the very first day. 

But will Obama accept Hillary Clinton?  Will Michelle Obama accept Hillary Clinton?  Will Hillary have to leave Bill at home?  Send him to Dubai on a two-month business trip?

This is pure speculation.  I don't predict here.  I really think the odds are way against it.  I don't think, frankly, that Obama could stand the competition.  But he's languishing in the polls, and he may have to make a Kennedyesque decision to unite the party and pull off a spectacular. 

We'll know in a few days.  Remember, you heard nothing here first.

August 20, 2008.      Permalink          

TUESDAY,  AUGUST 19,  2008

A TIME TO YAWN

Posted at 8:12 p.m. ET

This is the big stuff.  The Dems really mean it this year.  They're rolling out the heavy artillery, as the AP tells us:

An Indiana railroader, an Iowa mother and a Michigan truck driver are getting a moment at the Democratic convention to help portray Barack Obama as the people's champion and counter GOP characterizations of him as an out-of-touch celebrity.

The idea is for these ''real people,'' as the campaign calls them, to share personal stories about why they are supporting the Democratic presidential candidate and how they think he will help folks like them and the more than 20 million expected to be watching the convention at home.

Question:  What's an unreal person?  Are there unreal persons running around?  Should we arrest them?  Study them?

Question:  Have any leaders of the Democratic Party ever met a railroader, an Iowa mother or a truck driver?  I mean, you don't find them at meetings in Aspen.

Question:  Will the Dems know how to feed these people?  You know, tofu and herbal tea might not make it.

The real people will, of course, speak directly from the heart, from the soul, from the depths of their rotten experiences under BUSH! 

Well, not exactly...

Professional speechwriters are helping prepare their remarks, timed to about three minutes each. And just like any senator or other VIP speaker, an assigned staff member will oversee their schedules and logistical movements, including media interviews, speech coaching and on-stage rehearsals.

Just real, down-to-earth folk.  With a staff of thousands.

Real people also will be featured at an event Tuesday alongside Michelle Obama and the nation's female Democratic governors to talk about the economic problems facing women.

What happens if one of the unreal people gets in and asks why we can't drill for more oil in our own country?  Will she be put into the unreal persons detention center?

Finally...

Besides ''real people,'' Obama's campaign and the convention committee on Tuesday announced more names who will speak at the convention, including former President Carter; Sen. John Kerry, the 2004 presidential nominee; various Democratic senators and governors, and union leaders.

Now I know what they mean by unreal people.  What a ratings bonanza.

August 19, 2008.      Permalink          

INTERNAL MEMO

Posted at 7:12 p.m. ET

It's now widely acknowledged that John McCain won Saturday's Saddleback "faith" debate, moderated by Pastor Rick Warren.  He won it handily, in part because McCain actually has a point of view, and actually knows things, two standards apparently not required of some other candidates.

Many cannot emotionally accept that McCain came out ahead of Obama, and so a rumor has spread that McCain cheated, that he knew Warren's questions in advance.

Rick Warren himself has responded to those stories in an internal church memo, sent to us here at Urgent Agenda by a private source.  The memo says in part:

...it seems that somebody who didn't like the Forum is systematically
calling media to raise questions about McCain possibly hearing part of the
Forum. Of course McCain didn't hear anything. Both men agreed to the terms
of the Forum and I trust both of them. They are questioning the integrity of
McCain, the Secret Service, and our own security.

Actually, I'm afraid this rumor will hurt the Obama campaign, because if
someone asks me, I'll have to say that I told Barack in advance about one
of the questions, that I never got a chance to tell John McCain about because
he wasn't on campus yet.

I did an interview with Dan from Beliefnet which felt pretty antagonistic.
He charged "An anonymous source told me that John McCain was watching a
monitor in his green room." Flat out Impossible! But Dan had called Tim Farley
at XM radio and talked to Tim about this. Other media had been called too.
Whoever is spreading this, is going to look like a fool when the truth gets
out, and it may have repercussions. Of course, everyone is trying to force
me to take sides, which I steadfastly refuse to do. But pray for me because
this dishonest rumor angers me.

And the facts:

Here are some facts:

1. There were Secret service staff and Saddleback staff with McCain, and there was no way McCain could have listened to anything without being seen. There were cameras on him when he arrived.

2. "When I said 'cone of silence' I was obviously being silly - the crowd
laughed at the obvious metaphor reference to Get Smart. But Senator McCain
was put in a green room in a DIFFERENT BUILDING without any contact.

3. Chuck Taylor, Saddleback staff member DISCONNECTED the TV from the source as part of creating a silent green room. If anyone had even tried to turn the TV in that room all they would have got was static!

Some of these "McCain cheated" stories are taking on a familiar tone.  They remind me of the "Bush lied, thousands died" line that accompanied opposition to the Iraq War.  There are people who simply cannot believe it when someone they disagree with appears intelligent and well-informed.  They live their lives convinced that anyone whom they oppose must inherently be "stupid."  And so they generate conspiracy stories whenever anything shakes their juvenile world.  That, I'm afraid, is what we are seeing here.

August 19, 2008.      Permalink          

POLLS

Posted at 1:48 p.m. ET

Both trackers are out for today.  As we reported earlier at SNIPPETS, Rasmussen has Obama up two, compared to one yesterday.

But Gallup has Obama up one, compared to three yesterday.

Averaging the two, Obama has a 1.5-percent lead in the trackers.

A general poll, Quinnipiac, released today, has Obama up five.  However, it was conducted earlier than today's trackers.

Obama goes into his convention with the narrowest of leads, and no realistic vice presidential choice, except outside-shot Hillary, can create much excitement.  Not the place he wanted to be.

UPDATE AT 5:41 p.m. ET - A new L.A.Times/Bloomberg poll just released shows Obama up only two points over McCain. The same poll showed him up by 12 in June.

August 19, 2008.      Permalink           

GEORGIA STILL ON OUR MIND

 Posted at 8:25 a.m. ET

The 24-hour news cycle sometimes makes us forget stories as soon as they're out of the headlines for a few hours.  But we must constantly keep Georgia on our minds.  The Russian invasion of that country has produced the greatest crisis in West-Russian relations since the end of the Cold War, although the usual suspects are out in force trying to minimize the problem.  It's the same crowd that fainted out loud when Ronald Reagan demanded that Gorbachev "tear down this wall."  No one is suggesting we send over the missiles or level the Kremlin, and we should certainly take into account the historic complications of Russia's relations with Georgia and other surrounding nations.  But our response must be firm, and the Russians must understand that actions have consequences.  From the AP:

NATO was set to send a strong signal of support for Georgia, as the United States urged allies Tuesday to boost military ties with the former Soviet republic on Russia's southern border.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice was backing the setting up of a permanent NATO-Georgia Commission to solidify ties between the Western alliance and Georgia. Diplomats said Washington also supports increasing training for the Georgian military.

At the same time, NATO foreign ministers were discussing possibly scaling back high-level meetings and military cooperation with Russia if it does not abandon crucial positions across Georgia.

Douglas MacArthur once said that all military disasters begin with two words:  Too late.  Georgia had been proposed for NATO membership, but Germany blocked entrance last year.  I'm sensitive to those who honestly believe that expanding NATO membership provokes Russia.  However, if Georgia had been a member of NATO three weeks ago, it's unlikely that Russia would have invaded.  It's hard to conceive of Moscow invading a NATO nation.  Denying membership to Georgia was a blunder.

NATO is awaiting Russia's promised military pullout after a brief war with the ex-Soviet republic -- a conflict that has exacerbated tensions between Moscow and the West.

But as the NATO meeting began on Tuesday, Russia's military held onto crucial positions across Georgia.

NATO was expected to restate its commitment to eventually offer alliance membership to Georgia -- despite Russia's fierce opposition.

''We said (Georgia) would eventually become a member of NATO alongside Ukraine, and that's certainly the position that we will be advocating today,'' British Foreign Secretary David Miliband said.

Good.  Now let's see what actually is done.

August 19, 2008.      Permalink          

PRESS BIAS - HERE?

Posted at 7:45 a.m. ET

You mean, some people are saying that the press is biased?  How can anyone think that?  Why, our journalists are serious, professional people with a neutral...oh, forget it.

Even the ombudsman, or ombudsperson, or whatever it is, of the Washington Post has now thrown in the environmentally safe towelette, and admitted that "it doesn't look good."

Democrat Barack Obama has had about a 3 to 1 advantage over Republican John McCain in Post Page 1 stories since Obama became his party's presumptive nominee June 4. Obama has generated a lot of news by being the first African American nominee, and he is less well known than McCain -- and therefore there's more to report on. But the disparity is so wide that it doesn't look good.

No it doesn't.  And I would dispute that Obama "is less well known" than McCain.  At this point in the campaign he's actually far better known to the general public because of the massive press coverage.

This is not just a Post phenomenon. The Project for Excellence in Journalism has been monitoring campaign coverage at an assortment of large and medium-circulation newspapers, broadcast evening and morning news shows, five news Web sites, three major cable news networks, and public radio and other radio outlets. Its latest report, for the week of Aug. 4-10, shows that for the eighth time in nine weeks, Obama received significantly more coverage than McCain.

All in the interest, no doubt, of serving the public's right to know.  Not.

When Obama traveled to the Middle East and Europe, the coverage dwarfed that of McCain -- six Page 1 stories from July 19 to July 27, plus an earlier front-page story announcing the trip. McCain managed one Page 1 story and one Page 1 reference; the July 25 story said he might pick a vice presidential candidate soon, but that didn't happen.

The evidence builds.  But here comes the inevitable pomposity:

Bill Hamilton, assistant managing editor for politics, thinks that I'm wrong to put weight on numbers. "We make our own decisions about what we consider newsworthy. We are not garment workers measuring our product every day to fulfill somebody's quota. That means as editors we decide what we think is important, because that's what our readers look for us to do -- not to adhere to some arbitrary standard.

Don't you just love the elitist comment about garment workers?  I wonder who Hamilton thinks makes his suits?  Journalism students?

The Post's ombudsman rightly concludes:

Numbers aren't everything in political coverage, but readers deserve comparable coverage of the candidates.

Yes they do.  But when you've got a bunch of sixties-influenced editors and writers who went into journalism to "make a difference," that's not what you'll get.  And that is a tragedy that can profoundly influence the future of this country.

August 19, 2008.      Permalink          

THE CHOICE

Posted at 7:06 a.m. ET

Just about everyone, probably including the Weekly Reader, is reporting that Senator Obama will announce his vice presidential choice in the next few days.  We await breathlessly for the saint to speak the name of the newly chosen assistant saint.  Speculation surrounds the following worthies, each and every one known for purity, goodness, and even virginity:

1.  Senator Even Bayh of Indiana.  Pros:  A nice guy with a clean history, known as a moderate Democrat.  He would assure moderates in the party that they count for something, if only the vice presidency.  Could help Obama carry Indiana, which may be in play this year.  Cons:  Bland, no great accomplishments, a boring orator, a "marshmallow," as Dick Morris called him last night.

2.  Senator Joe Biden of Delaware.  Pros:  Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, he brings the appearance of gravitas, and real expertise on foreign relations; a reasonably moderate Democrat; coming from Delaware, he doesn't bring large electoral votes, so the choice would seem to be a serious "best man" choice; compelling personal story of how he carried on after his wife and child were killed in an accident following his election to the Senate.  Cons:  Ran for president and never caught on; very talkative, with the risks that brings of a gaffe; no excitement factor.

3.  Governor Kathleen Sibelius of Kansas.  Pros:  A woman; a governor with executive experience; allows Obama to emphasize that he was partially brought up with "Kansas values," as his white grandparents come from that state; reasonably good speaker.  Cons:  A woman, but not Hillary, and her choice is likely to enrage many Hillary supporters; unknown to the public outside Kansas; somewhat controversial inside the state; zero foreign-policy experience.

4.  Governor Tim Kaine of Virginia.  Pros:  A nice guy with working-class values; could help carry Virginia, a critical state; a governor.  Cons:  Absolutely no foreign-policy experience; a mediocre record as governor, whose previous experience was as mayor of a city of fewer than 200,000 residents.

5.  Hillary.  A long shot.  Nothing more need be said.

It isn't, to put it mildly, a group whose names scream "obvious choice."  There is, of course, one obvious choice, and it's Hillary.  Naming her would unite the party, and probably give Obama a brief bump in the polls as it would show his "daring" and "graciousness."  But naming her could also bring all kinds of problems, including the sense that Obama isn't running things.  Also, Hillary might not wear well in a general election.  Her popularity among the public at large is less than overwhelming.

Of the others, Biden would be the best "government" choice.  Sibelius, as noted, would enrage the Hillary crowd. 

But the worst choice, from a governing viewpoint, would be Kaine of Virginia.  For a presidential candidate of minimal accomplishment to choose a veep with the same problem would insult the public.  Kaine's lack of foreign-policy experience would send a signal that either 1) Obama doesn't really care about foreign policy at a time of great challenge to the nation or, 2) that he doesn't want anyone interfering with his foreign policy, a frightening thought considering his gaffes and his often childish views. 

Prediction?  I don't make predictions here.  I will occasionally speculate.  Unless the choice is out of the blue, the Dems would probably be best off with Biden, who at least brings some seriousness.  This is Obama's first major decision as a presidential candidate.  It will at least hint at how seriously he takes his new role.

August 19, 2008.      Permalink          

"What you see is news.  What you know is background.  What you feel is opinion."
    - Lester Markel, late Sunday editor
      of The New York Times.

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